Mobile Data Revenues Hit US$100 billion In 2005

Informa Telecoms & Media has released its World Cellular Data Metrics, which indicates that global mobile data revenues were more than US$100 billion in 2005. "The figure of US$102.1 billion is equal to US$52.9 per every mobile subscription throughout the year or US$4.4 per month." This is apparently on par with the amount European operators paid for 3G licences...

The first quarter revenues of 2006 were also up 17% year-on-year to US$28.4 billion. Unsurprisingly NTT DoCoMo took out the top spot, and China Mobile came second (I'm assuming because of the size of its user base rather than a high average data usage).

Комментарии - от MocoNews.

Карта покрытия мира различными технологиями передачи мобильных данных.

U.S. Operators Shying Away From Deals With Online Giants

Это пересказ заметки в Wall Street Journal от MocoNews:

So is the premise of this story: it says that U.S. are shying away from search or advertising deals with online giants such as Google and Yahoo, in favor of partnerships with small start-ups they can more easily control. Part of it, I think, it also because the startups are more focused and aggressive, and Yahoo/Google/AOL/MSN have all been anemic in their mobile efforts.
Anyway, back to the story: The story says Verizon Wireless is close to doing a deal with mobile-search provider Medio Systems, where VZW users will be able to search for downloadable multimedia content through a Medio-powered search bar. Medio is also developing a text-listing ad service. Another small search provider JumpTap says it has struck early-stage search deals with several North American carriers, and one is believed to be Cingular Wireless.
Alltel, the fifth-largest U.S. cellular carrier, meanwhile has narrowed its selection of a search partner to JumpTap and Medio.
The usual reasons for this behavior from operators: the dynamics of mobile search and advertising are different than online. Also, by aligning themselves with startups, the carriers believe they will keep a greater rev-share of the generated ad revenues...operators also worry that their brands will be diluted if they gave a prominent marketing slot to a major Internet brand.
However, Google and Yahoo say carriers will eventually discover the start-ups can't handle large amounts of user requests.

IDC Predicts Substantial Market Expansion for U.S. Wireless Cellular TV and Video Content and Services

BUSINESS WIRE, July 25, 2006
IDC expects about 24 million U.S. cellular subscribers and customers will be paying for some form of TV/video content and services on their mobile devices by 2010, up from about 7 million this year. This growth presents new revenue opportunities for carriers, handset developers, and content providers. IDC expects mobile commercial video and television content and services to emerge as a key component of U.S. carrier data services if delivered and priced appropriately.

"Although our research found penetration of these services isn't likely to exceed 10% of all subscribers by 2010, video/TV services are poised to become a significant contributor to carrier data ARPU while emerging as a hotbed for community-oriented interaction and interesting advertising experiments," says Lewis Ward, research manager in IDC's Wireless and Mobile Communications program. "Broadband adoption of video/TV services is emerging as the cornerstone of growth in this market."

Overall, blended cellular TV video/TV content and service ARPU is expected to settle in at about $6.50. This metric is comprised of three elements: a la carte content purchases, narrowband (i.e. "2.5G") subscriptions, and broadband (i.e. "3G") subscriptions. Within this mix, broadband video/TV services should grow from less than half of all revenues last year to about 85% of the total in 2010, with a substantially above average ARPU. Survey data suggest that a mix of on-demand clips and live streaming content is the most appealing to consumers.

However, uneven operator broadband network deployments, handset limitations, business model complexities, and indirect competition will continue to hamper adoption and growth of these services. Thus, while this market is receiving an amazing amount of interest from media companies and consumer brands, it will likely be several years before the opportunity to leverage mobile video/TV services as an interactive advertising channel will emerge in a profound manner.

The IDC study, U.S. Wireless Cellular Television and Video 2006-2010 Forecast: Grand Visions for the Small Screen (IDC #202169), delves into cellular-based video and television content and services, which continue to generate a phenomenal amount of interest from an array of companies in and beyond the telecommunications industry. Buttressed by primary consumer survey research, this study examines key trends in the market, anticipated subscriber/customer and revenue totals through 2010, and potential threats to continued market expansion. The differing strategies between leading operators and the likely impact of emerging broadcast/multicast service providers such as MediaFLO and Modeo (the latter is not directly forecast here, however) are also explored.

MVNO Math (ESPN Mobile and other MVNO's)

Julie Ask
Research Director,
JupiterResearch

I can not resist joining in on the conversation around ESPN Mobile. To be contrarian though, I’m going to assume that they are neither arrogant nor unsavvy about this market. There has been market research around since the beginning of time that says that consumers choose wireless carriers based on coverage at home/work, low cost or reasonably priced handsets, and cost of service. They do not choose wireless carriers for their entertainment options. We did a poll recently on our site – one percent view their cell phone as an entertainment device. We had similar data when asking consumers about their priorities when selecting a provider. I’m going to assume that ESPN Mobile knew all of these things before launching their service, and that they were not arrogant in thinking that they knew more than a hundred wireless analysts collectively.

The Math (Back of the Envelope)

- 1 percent of mobile subscribers would choose a provider based on entertainment options offered

- for simplicity, we’ll assume 200 million mobile subscribers in the US (yes, there are more than this, but this number is easy)

- That means that about two million would choose a carrier based on entertainment options

- Not all of them will be able to switch in any given year because they are locked into one and two year contracts

- Making some assumptions about percentage post-paid additions, percentage of additions that are merely family members, etc. (again rough calculation), let’s assume 12 million people make a carrier decision each quarter. Over two quarters (roughly since the holiday season), that would be 25 million if we round up a bit. If we stick with our 200 million assumption, then we assume that about 1/8th of mobile subscribers have selected a new carrier since the holidays.

- If we apply that 1/8th to the two million (potential market), we come up with 250,000 subscribers who have been in the market in the past six months who said they would make entertainment a high priority. Over a year, this is 500,000.

- (not sure of the source, but I saw the number in Fierce) – someone estimated that ESPN Mobile expected to bring in 240,000 subscribers in their first year. This would indicate that they fully expected to take 50 percent of this market. That is a LOT if you consider that there are not only a lot of MVNO’s (e.g., Helio, Disney, Amp’d) in this space with similar goals, but also the carriers. Anyone heard of something called a ROKR that holds 100 songs from iTunes from Cingular? or VCast from Verizon? or “live” streaming TV from Sprint (which, by the way, a lot of people said they would buy)? We are not short on entertainment offerings today. Oh, yeah, and entertainment does not equal sports ... some of these entertainment-enthusiasts will make other choices.

- the same article estimated that ESPN Mobile will attract 30,000 subscribers this year. Six percent of this market sounds somewhat reasonable – like a goal they may have had when they started this business almost a year ago. It’s hard to imagine that they thought they would take 50 percent of the market in year one – especially going head to head with those that have been in the market for so many years.

I don’t think they are that arrogant. They don’t have a lot of the costs that other pure plays have. Marketing is an opportunity cost on their network rather than $$ out the door. Still, acquiring customers is hard and it costs a lot. Identifying niches that the wireless carriers themselves aren’t better suited to serve is also hard. Virgin Mobile has done it – four million subscribers in four years which is amazing, but even they have messaging and product that conveys value.

They MUST have a different plan or metrics in mind that they haven't told these analysts.

Math here certainly isn’t exact, but I don’t think it’s off by an order of magnitude.

Mobile Videos go Online With Launch of SelfcastTV

LONDON, July 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Millions of UK mobile phone users will finally have something to do with their videos thanks to SelfcastTV, the world's first super-fast video share site that lets users text their videos straight to the site. And it's not just for mobile phone users - anyone with a PC can head to SelfcastTV.com and get their mini-movies online and seen by millions in a matter of minutes.

With a simple registration process and 3-step upload system; SelfcastTV is set to make its mark in the UK with the general public, as well as the early adopters. Whether you're filming your mates' antics down the pub, your own home-made movie or you're taking your first step to get on TV like Ron Atkinson's recent video blogs during the World Cup, SelfcastTV allows you to quickly and easily upload your video content to the site, from your mobile phone or PC so they can be searched and viewed by other users.

SelfcastTV users can also create their own channel to select and view their favourite videos and can even use the MovieMode feature to combine their selected footage into one continuous video.

"Just as podcasting was the craze of 2005, video blogging and sharing is what is taking the world by storm in 2006. Whether it's making videos or just watching them and sending them on to friends, everyone's got the bug," said Suranga Chandratillake, founder of SelfcastTV.com. "What makes SelfcastTV stand out from the crowd is that our users can upload footage straight to the site with a simple text message. Unlike other popular video sharing sites, SelfcastTV is a UK site, built specifically for the UK market and we've made sure we have tailored services and features that fit with what the UK audience wants."

www.selfcasttv.com users can embed their video files into other websites such has My Space, Ebay, Xanga and brit-journal.com.

The new service supports more formats than any other video sharing site as well as boasting a faster turn around time from upload to download. With only a handful of fields to register and even fewer to upload content, SelfcastTV is the most straightforward and efficient service for consumers wanting to get their videos online.

Other video sharing sites require much more information from the user when uploading content to help other users effectively search the site for content. SelfcastTV uses the power of blinkx search technology that uses speech recognition to allow computers to understand videos - meaning more relevant search results for anyone searching for content and less work for anyone uploading content.

Britons 'dependent on mobile use'

Mobiles have had a huge impact since their launch 21 years ago

More than 90% of UK mobile users cannot get through the day without using their phone, a survey suggests.

Among younger users, 9% admitted being addicted to their phones and feeling out of control in how they used them, the Yougov poll of 16,500 people found.

The study, commissioned by Carphone Warehouse, also found many women relied on their phones as a form of security.

Fifty-four per cent of females under 25 had used a mobile when out alone to put people off approaching them, it found.

The mobile has become a new "barrier" for women to fend off unwanted attention, where a newspaper or magazine would have been used in the past, the study said.

Overall, 21% of the people polled admitted using a mobile as a means to stop people approaching them.

Crime focus

Mobile phones have also become a greater focus of crime - approximately one in 10 people have had their handset stolen, with 18 to 24-year-olds most at risk, the report says.

Half of those quizzed said they would use their mobile to record evidence of a crime, while 47% said they would record a crime in progress.

The Mobile Life report - the biggest study of the UK's mobile users - also describes six tribes of mobile users:

• Generation Mobile - single style conscious 18 to 24-year-old students or young adults in their first job
• Phonatics - single 18 to 34-year-olds who see a mobile as their most important electronic possession.
• Practical Parents - cost-conscious young families under the age of 34 who choose their mobiles on price grounds
• Fingers and Thumbs - married, middle-aged or retired people with children or grandchildren
• Smart Connected - affluent families and professionals aged 25 to 44 who use mobiles to organise their work and social lives
• Silver Cynics - affluent, married parents who are approaching retirement

The survey, carried out with advice from the London School of Economics and Lord Philip Gould, found 92% of mobile owners cannot get through a typical day without using their phone.

Generation gap

While most people aged between 18 and 40 say mobiles have improved their lives, the over-40s are evenly divided on this question.

The younger generation puts their mobile ahead of television, with most 18 to 24-year-olds thinking it matters more to them than their TV.

The survey also found only 14% of people would turn their phone off during sex.

While 75% of people think it is rude to use the mobile during dinner, only 9% of respondents said it was unreasonable to do so on a train.

Recycling campaigns have a long way to go, according to the survey.

The UK has a huge number of old mobiles lying around people's houses, with one in three people hanging onto outdated models instead of recycling or disposing of them.

(c) BBC News

Мобильное ТВ в сети Мегафон-СЗ

Еще одно направление, которое сейчас активно развивает "МегаФон" Северо-Запад", – услуга "Мобильное телевидение", позволяющая транслировать и принимать телепрограммы на экраны мобильных телефонов. Напомним, что анонсирована она была на выставке "Норвеком-2005", а запуск в коммерческую эксплуатацию произошел 20 декабря 2005 года.

Для использования услуги "Мобильное телевидение" необходимо, чтобы телефон поддерживал режим потокового видео с помощью технологии 3GP или проигрывателя RealPlayer. Кроме того, следует произвести настройку телефона для воспроизведения потокового видео через точку доступа оператора (internet.nw) и проверить, настроена ли услуга "WAP-доступ". Для получения доступа к услуге необходимо зайти на WAP-портал wap.megafonpro.ru в раздел "Видео" и выбрать закладку "Мобильное телевидение". Тарификация услуги "Мобильное телевидение" при условии использования технологии GPRS (EDGE) через точку доступа internet.nw осуществляется в соответствии с тарифами на услугу "Мобильный Интернет (GPRS)" согласно тарифному плану абонента. Услугой "Мобильное телевидение" также можно воспользоваться в одной из зон доступа сети Wi-Fi "МегаФон" Северо-Запад", в этом случае тарификация услуги будет осуществляться в соответствии с тарифами на услугу "Мобильный Интернет (Wi-Fi)". Изначально в рамках услуги абоненты получали доступ к четырем телевизионным каналам: РБК-ТВ, ТДК (Телевизионный Дамский Клуб), Муз-ТВ, 5 канал. К сегодняшнему моменту данный список изменен. Так, сейчас в рамках услуги организована трансляция также четырех каналов – НТВ, ТНТ, РБК-ТВ и 02ТВ – и ведутся переговоры по расширению данного предложения. Кроме того, в планах оператора – привлечение контент-провайдеров для наполнения услуги самым разнообразным видео – от трейлеров фильмов до записи выпусков новостей и футбольных матчей, а также реализация возможности получения видео по запросу. Отметим, что помимо увеличения количества сервисов проводится довольно масштабная рекламная кампания – используется наружная реклама (по оценке представителей оператора, именно благодаря ей большинство петербуржцев узнало об услуге), а в ближайшее время начнется реклама в метрополитене. "Интерес к услуге со стороны абонентов мы оцениваем как повышенный. Объем потребляемого в рамках услуги трафика с момента запуска увеличился в разы", – отмечают в пресс-службе компании "МегаФон" Северо-Запад". Отметим, что на данный момент помимо абонентов сети "МегаФон" в Петербурге услугу "Мобильное телефидение" смогут в ближайшее время оценить и абоненты "Скай Линка". Анонс данной услуги состоялся на выставке "Норвеком-2006" наряду с сервисами "Видео по запросу" и "Удаленное видеонаблюдение". Все сервисы построены на технологии высокоскоростной мобильной передачи данных EV-DO и предоставляются в рамках проекта SkyTurbo. В настоящее время проект "Мобильное телевидение" находится на стадии согласования условий трансляции с рядом правообладателей. "Технически у нас все готово, но мы хотим предоставить абонентам юридически безупречный продукт. Пока мы демонстрируем часть возможностей "Мобильного телевидения" на примере видеонаблюдения на экран EV-DO-терминала Ubiquam U300 – когда в режиме реального времени абонент может увидеть набережную Мойки или наш фирменный магазин", – сообщил Кирилл Волошин. Что же касается других местных операторов "большой тройки", то пока в их сетях запуск услуги "Мобильного телевидения" не планируется. Но они активно наращивают техническую базу. Например, у МТС "Макрорегион Северо-Запад" в течение последнего месяца ежедневно запускались базовые станции с поддержкой протокола EDGE. По мнению специалистов рынка, как раз после обеспечения высокого уровня проникновения EDGE на территории Петербурга операторы приступит к развитию ряда допуслуг, требующих высокой пропускной способности каналов. "Без достаточного количества базовых станций, поддерживающих EDGE, предоставление таких услуг, как "видео по требованию", является чисто номинальным, так как возможности протокола GPRS по пропуску больших объемов трафика в достаточной степени ограничены", – прокомментировал один из наблюдателей рынка.

© Наталья Чумарова, Spbit
2006/06/27.

Мобильное ТВ наступает. Россия не отстает

Опрос первых европейских пользователей мобильного телевидения ставит под сомнение скепсис многих аналитиков по поводу перспектив данной услуги и ее влияния на традиционное ТВ. Светлое будущее мобильному ТВ предрекают и в России.

«Некоторые результаты исследований стали для нас сюрпризом, — заявил вице-президент группы исследований и развития британского оператора сотовой связи O2 Майк Шорт (Mike Short). — Например, большинство пользователей смотрели передачи мобильного телевидения дома, на работе и учебе. При этом чаще всего мобильное телевидение смотрели рано утром, в обеденное время и вечером».

«Многие пользователи даже стали меньше смотреть обычный телевизор, объясняя это тем, что по мобильному телефону смотреть программы удобнее, а также из-за того, что некоторые каналы и передачи нельзя было посмотреть по обычному телевидению», — сообщил Майк Шорт в ходе заседания, организованного Ассоциацией 3G на конференции CSTB-2006 в Москве. Он отметил, что данные результаты расходятся с прогнозами многих аналитиков о том, что мобильное телевидение будут смотреть в основном по дороге на работу и домой, и что оно не окажет значительного влияния на традиционное телевидение. Напомним, что, к примеру, в недавнем исследовании аналитиков Deloitte делается прогноз, что мобильное телевидение не оправдает надежды его провайдеров: «Несмотря на предполагаемое позиционирование мобильного телевидения как очередного важнейшего изобретения человечества и десятки миллионов долларов, которые будут потрачены на его продвижение, потребительское признание этот продукт получит не сразу», — полагают в компании.

Исследование, проведенное O2 и вещательной компанией Arqiva (бывшая NTL Broadcast) в тестовой сети мобильного телевидения стандарта DVB-H, развернутой в Оксфорде, показало, что наиболее важными факторами успеха этой услуги является известность (бренд) транслируемых каналов и их количество. «16 каналов, которые мы транслировали в тестовой сети, оказались достаточными для большинства пользователей. Если бы каналов было намного меньше, то и интерес к этой услуге был бы очень низким», — подчеркнул Майк Шорт.

Проведенный в ходе испытаний опрос пользователей ясно показал, что спрос на услуги мобильного телевидения в Британии есть. «76% участников исследования заявили, что при разумной цене в £8–12 в месяц они готовы пользоваться этой услугой», — резюмировал Майк Шорт.

«Мы также положительно оцениваем перспективы мобильного телевидения в России», — сообщил корреспонденту CNews Денис Ирз, директор по новым технологиям и дополнительным услугам компании «Мегафон». «Поэтому наша компания первой в России запустила услугу мобильного телевидения еще в 2004 году. Сейчас количество пользователей этой услуги в нашей сети уже выросло до серьезного уровня». По оценке CNews, мобильным телевидением на данный момент пользуется уже несколько десятков тысяч абонентов «Мегафона». Как считает г-н Ирз, главным сдерживающим фактором развития мобильного телевидения в нашей стране является отсутствие к нему интереса ведущих отечественных телеканалов.

"Мобильное телевидение, безусловно, имеет будущее в России, — отметил для CNews Александр Рыбин, начальник отдела бизнес-планирования и инвестиций компании «Система Масс-Медиа». — Конечно, поначалу эти услуги будут стоить относительно дорого — около $20 в месяц. Однако со временем их стоимость может опуститься примерно до $5. По нашим оценкам, процесс становления рынка мобильного телевидения в России будет идти следующие 5–7 лет, а его потенциальный объем — около 30–50% от общего числа абонентов сотовой связи".

«Мобильное телевидение предоставляет вещателям и телезрителям новые, поистине неисчерпаемые возможности для построения новых форматов информационного обмена, — заявил CNews Андрей Скородумов, исполнительный директор Ассоциации 3G. — Учитывая перераспределение ролей, которые мы наблюдаем между мобильной и фиксированной связью, развитие мобильного телевидения может привести к изменению роли стационарного телевидения».

Андрей Скородумов отметил, что ключевым фактором успешного внедрения мобильного телевидения в России является разработка нового телевизионного контента, предназначенного для мобильных пользователей. Кроме того, необходимо определить принципы взаимодополняющего построения сетей сотовой связи и сетей телевизионного вещания, взаимодействия участников рынка новых услуг, разработать соответствующие нормативные правовые документы и выделить радиочастоты. Он сообщил, что для координации работ по решению этих задач Ассоциацией 3G создана специальная рабочая группа, предполагается также развернуть тестовые сети мобильного телевидения. Мининформсвязи России поддержало разработку Ассоциацией концепции внедрения мобильного телевидения в Российской Федерации, которая должна быть завершена к концу 2006 года.

Mobile gaming industry on the rise in Japan

New report says market has doubled in recent years

A new report by Japanese business site Tech On has revealed that Japan's mobile industry is booming - and that mobile gaming is on the rise, too.

According to the report, partially translated by GameSpot, figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Communication state that the mobile industry has grown to 722.4 billion Yen (4.9 billion Euro) over the past 12 months - a rise of 39 per cent.

The increase was boosted by mobile content sales, which rose by 21 per cent to reach 315 billion Yen (2.1 billion Euro). Sales of ringtones accounted for 161 billion Yen (1.09 billion Euro).
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Japan's mobile gaming industry is also on the rise, although growth has been somewhat less dramatic. The business has more than doubled over the past few years to reach a value of 58.9 billion Yen (400 million Euro).

The industry is set to experience a further boost as new titles are rolled out by companies such as Square-Enix, which recently announced the forthcoming launch of three new Final Fantasy titles for the mobile platform.

Women Rely on Wireless

Sprint has released the results of a survey on what women want from wireless...
–89% view their mobile phone as a time saver
–50% make at least half their calls from the device
–37% want the phone in reach all the time (compared to 30% of men)
–54% of women like ringtones, and personalized ringtones are more appealing to women than men.
–72% of women preferred the flip model of handsets.

Endemol sweet on Sugarbabes

Новость старая, но тем не менее интересная.

Endemol has taken the wraps off its first interactive reality show shot specially for mobile phones, enlisting UK girl band the Sugarbabes as the face of Get Close To…, a format it hopes will go global.

The series will launch this Friday following a tie-up between the Big Brother producer, the Sugarbabes' label Island Records Group and mobile network operator O2.

Get Close To… will consist of 2x2' episodes each day for the next six weeks, comprising behind-the-scenes footage of the girls on tour with not-quite-reformed British boy band Take That, still missing Robbie Williams.

The Sugarbabes will shoot some of their own content using mobile phones and interactivity will be key, with a quiz and a section called Over to You, where fans can send in video of their own dance moves in the hope that the band will incorporate them into their act.

Each instalment will cost 50p and will be available as a download to O2 customers with 2.5G handsets, or streamed to those with 3G.

Get Close To… was alluded to by Imogen O'Rorke, Endemol UK's new head of mobile, at the Rose d'Or festival in Switzerland last month. It is the first format to emerge from the six-month-old division, although it was devised by Endemol International head of mobile TV and video Michiel de Gooijer, who also negotiated the partnerships with O2 and Universal.

Endemol chief creative officer Peter Bazalgette said that Get Close To… would have the highest production quality, "like any TV show," but that it would be far more interactive.

"It's wonderful that fans can now generate their own material and contribute it to this format. It’s just the beginning of mobile content but it’s really exciting," said Bazalgette.

An Endemol spokesman said the hope was that the Sugarbabes would be the first of many artists to get involved in Get Close To… and that the format would travel to other countries.

The company had some success with FanTESStic, a static picture-based soap that has made it to countries including Argentina, Australia, Italy and Mexico. Take-up of made-for-mobile video has been slower, however, with Endemol's Cellular, a soap aimed at teenage girls, proving highly successful in France but yet to find an audience elsewhere.

Jonathan Webdale
8 May 2006
© C21 Media 2006

MTV's User-Gen TV Channel Flux To Launch in UK

MTV is doing a extreme version of CurrentTV in UK: it has already announced plans for its Flux brand (as a mobile driven service), and is now close to launching (on Sep 6) a TV channel based on the concept. Only in UK for now, but plans to roll out in other countries as well, if the experiment goes well.
The channel will allow users to choose which music videos are displayed on the channel, and display their own videos and messages alongside (which can be sent/uploaded through phone and online). It will have no traditional schedule, but will be overseen by a controller, however, to ensure it abides by broadcasting regulations and MTV will monitor all user-generated content.
The channel will carry advertising and users will not be charged for signing up to the website.
The service borrows from ideas trialled on websites in Japan and Italy.
In U.S., for now, it seems Flux is the brand for its off-portal strategy...judging by the Flux.com site.

(c) MocoNews